Centering Racial and Ethnic Equity in Health Care Throughout Spatial Data Analysis (preprint)

Background: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic as well as a host of social movements have put a nation-sized spotlight on structural inequality and racial disparities in health throughout America. As health care systems begin to advance health equity by holding plans and payers accounting for racial and socioeconomic disparities in care, quantitative methods are needed that emphasize the distinct linkages between physical locations and racially disparate outcomes. Methods: We apply a counterfactual model to compare differences in avoidable and potentially avoidable emergency department (ED) admissions among a panel of 8,924 non-Hispanic White, Black, and Hispanic Medicaid participants between 2016 - 2018. The magnitude of disparity estimates is examined in relation to geographic proximity to health care providers, neighborhood socioeconomic contexts, as well as the type of primary care delivery model individuals received. The adjusted rates were assessed by generalized estimating equations (GEE) and average marginal effects models to contrast differences in probability of events in association with race/ethnicity, proximity to care, and treatment through patient-centered medical homes (PCMH). Results: Attending a patient-centered medical home was associated with a 3.4 percentage point (p <0.001) decrease in Black-White racial disparity and a 1.8 percentage point (p < 0.10) reduction in the overall Black-White disparity for potentially avoidable ED admissions. PCMH attendance was attributed to a 2.6 percentage point (p < 0.10) reduction in Hispanic-White disparities in potentially avoidable admissions, but this difference was not substantial enough to curb the overall Hispanic-White racial disparity in ED admissions. No statistically significant reductions in Black-White or Hispanic-White disparities in avoidable ED admissions were observed. Conclusion: Medical homes may be able to curb, but not necessarily eliminate, racial disparities in ED admissions. Counterfactual models of health disparities are in line with recent transitions toward evaluating patient- and value-centered health care reform changes as they are designed to measure health and racial equity. This strategy, or variations of it, are adaptable to other investigations where emphasis on physical locations is considered essential to understanding racial disparities in health outcomes.

Global Pandemic Trends of COVID-19 in 2020 (preprint)

Background: The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has been global threaten to public health. This paper provides perspective to the decision-making for public health control of the pandemic or the spread of epidemic.Methods: According to the WHO global reported database, we developed and used the number of cumulative cases, and the number of cumulative deaths to calculate and analyze rates of incidence, mortality, and fatality by country, with respect to the 30 highest outbreak (Top 30) countries.Results： As of December 31, 2020, of the global population of 7.585 billion, the cumulative number of reported cases was 81,475,053, and the cumulative number of deaths was 1,798,050. The incidence rate of COVID-19 was 1074.13 per 100,000 population, the mortality rate was 23.70 per 100,000, and the case fatality rate was 2.21%. Among the Top 30 countries, the five countries with the highest number of reported cumulative cases were, in rank, the United States (19,346,790 cases), India (10,266,674), Brazil (7,563,551), Russia (3,159,297) and France (2,556,708), and the five countries with the highest number of cumulative deaths were the United States (335,789 cases), Brazil (192,681), India (148,738), Mexico (123,845) and Italy (73,604). Globally, the countries with the highest incidence rate were, in rank, Andorra, Luxembourg, Montenegro, San Marino, and Czechia; the countries with the highest mortality rate were, in rank, San Marino, Belgium, Slovenia, Italy, and North Macedonia. The highest fatality rate was found in Yemen, Mexico, Montserrat, Isle of Man, and Ecuador, respectively. In China, 96,673 cases of COVID-19 and 4788 deaths were reported in 2020, ranking the 78th and the 43rd, respectively, in the world. The incidence rate and mortality rate were 6.90/105 and 0.34/105, respectively, ranking 207th and 188th in the world. The case fatality rate was 4.95%, ranking 11th in the world.Conclusions： The COVID-19 prevalence is still on the rise, and the turning points of incidence and mortality are not yet forecasted. Personal protection, anti-epidemic measures and efforts from public health personnel, medical professionals, biotechnology R&D personnel, effectiveness of the vaccination programs and the governments, are the important factors to determine the future prevalence of this coronavirus disease.

Population Mobility and the Transmission Risk of the COVID-19 in Wuhan, China

At the beginning of 2020, a suddenly appearing novel coronavirus (COVID-19) rapidly spread around the world. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in China occurred during the Spring Festival when a large number of migrants traveled between cities, which greatly increased the infection risk of COVID-19 across the country. Financially supported by the Wuhan government, and based on cellphone signaling data from Unicom (a mobile phone carrier) and Baidu location-based data, this paper analyzed the effects that city dwellers, non-commuters, commuters, and people seeking medical services had on the transmission risk of COVID-19 in the early days of the pandemic in Wuhan. The paper also evaluated the effects of the city lockdown policy on the spread of the pandemic outside and inside Wuhan. The results show that although the daily business activities in the South China Seafood Wholesale Market and nearby commuters’ travel behaviors concentrated in the Hankou area, a certain proportion of these people were distributed in the Wuchang and Hanyang areas. The areas with relatively high infection risks of COVID-19 were scattered across Wuhan during the early outbreak of the pandemic. The lockdown in Wuhan closed the passageways of external transport at the very beginning, largely decreasing migrant population and effectively preventing the spread of the pandemic to the outside. However, the Wuhan lockdown had little effect on preventing the spread of the pandemic within Wuhan at that time. During this period, a large amount of patients who went to hospitals for medical services were exposed to a high risk of cross-infection without precaution awareness. The pandemic kept dispersing in three towns until the improvement of the capacity of medical treatment, the management of closed communities, the national support to Wuhan, and the implementation of a series of emergency responses at the same time. The findings in this paper reveal the spatiotemporal features of the dispersal of infection risk of COVID-19 and the effects of the prevention and control measures during the early days of the pandemic. The findings were adopted by the Wuhan government to make corresponding policies and could also provide supports to the control of the pandemic in the other regions and countries.